Yinka Kolawole in Osogbo
A former Chief Press Secretary to the immediate-past Governor of Osun State, Gboyega Oyetola, Ismail Omipidan, has questioned the feasibility of securing 1.5 million votes for President Bola Ahmed Tinubu in Osun State in the 2027 common election, warning that the political technique surrounding the goal may undermine the All Progressives Congress (APC).
Omipidan additionally cautioned Tinubu and the APC nationwide management towards political preparations that might alienate loyal occasion members, arguing that resentment throughout the occasion may weaken grassroots mobilisation forward of the presidential election.
In an opinion article, he maintained that Osun State’s historic voting patterns didn’t help the projection of 1.5 million presidential votes, urging the president and the occasion management to undertake a method that displays the state’s electoral historical past, political peculiarities, and the pursuits of its folks.
He additionally expressed concern over the political implications of Governor Ademola Adeleke’s reported emergence as Osun State coordinator of Tinubu’s 2027 re-election marketing campaign, warning that the association may generate discontent amongst APC members if their established political buildings weren’t adequately thought-about.
“In war, just like in politics, strategy is everything,” Omipidan wrote, arguing {that a} technique pushed by the ambitions of some people may fail if it didn’t accommodate the pursuits of the broader occasion membership.
Omipidan mentioned he first heard concerning the proposed 1.5 million-vote goal lower than 24 hours after the APC misplaced the August 15, 2026, governorship election in Osun State.
He added that the following repetition of the goal by the occasion’s National Secretary, Senator Ajibola Basiru, had heightened his considerations concerning the political calculations behind the proposal.
The APC misplaced the governorship election to Adeleke, who contested on the platform of the Accord Party.
According to Omipidan, the proposed goal appeared inconsistent with Osun’s historic presidential election outcomes, because the state had by no means recorded as much as a million votes for a presidential candidate in earlier elections.
Citing the 2011 presidential election, he mentioned the Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN) candidate polled 299,711 votes in Osun State, whereas the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) secured 188,409 votes, with registered voters standing at 1,342,289.
In 2015, he mentioned the APC received the state with 383,603 votes towards the PDP’s 249,929, whereas the variety of registered voters was 1,407,107.
For the 2019 presidential election, Omipidan cited 347,634 votes for the APC and 337,377 for the PDP.
In the 2023 presidential election, he mentioned the APC polled 342,941 votes in Osun, whereas the PDP secured 353,860.
He argued that the figures demonstrated the problem of reaching the proposed 1.5 million votes, significantly with no substantial improve in voter participation.
“Historically, Osun State has never posted up to a million votes in any presidential election, and it will not happen next year, unless some persons just want to write figures,” he mentioned.
Omipidan acknowledged that voter turnout in presidential elections may differ from that recorded throughout governorship elections however maintained that the excellence ought to inform the occasion’s electoral calculations.
He urged the APC management to determine lifelike targets based mostly on the state’s voting patterns and develop a mobilisation technique able to attracting voters throughout Osun State.
Omipidan expressed concern over the political preparations being developed in Osun State to safe Tinubu’s re-election.
He particularly questioned the implications of Adeleke’s reported appointment because the president’s marketing campaign coordinator in the state, arguing that the APC should make sure the association didn’t undermine its current buildings.
While acknowledging the governor’s position in the rising marketing campaign association, Omipidan maintained that the APC must be allowed to strengthen its organisational equipment and mobilise its members in help of Tinubu.
He warned that occasion members who felt sidelined may grow to be much less dedicated to the marketing campaign, doubtlessly weakening the grassroots mobilisation required to attain the specified electoral consequence.
According to him, the presidency and the APC nationwide management should take note of the considerations of occasion loyalists who’ve invested time and sources in constructing the occasion.
He additionally cautioned towards political preparations that might create pointless divisions between Tinubu and the Minister of Marine and Blue Economy, Adegboyega Oyetola, a outstanding APC determine in Osun State.
“President Tinubu and Oyetola must tread softly and cautiously,” he wrote, urging each leaders to contemplate the implications of the rising political dynamics.
Omipidan prompt that these selling the present association may inadvertently create stress between the 2 leaders if the pursuits of the established APC construction weren’t adequately protected.
He argued that the occasion’s nationwide management mustn’t underestimate the sentiments of members who may understand the association as favouring just a few political actors on the expense of the broader occasion.
He maintained that the success of the president’s re-election marketing campaign would rely partly on the flexibility of the APC to reconcile competing pursuits and be certain that its members remained actively concerned in the mobilisation course of.
Omipidan additional argued that political methods should replicate the peculiarities of the states in which they’re deployed, noting that an method that works in one a part of the nation may not essentially produce the identical outcomes elsewhere.
He maintained that Osun’s political tradition, voters’ expectations and prevailing pursuits must be thought-about in figuring out how the APC would pursue Tinubu’s re-election.
According to him, electoral mobilisation includes greater than bringing outstanding political figures collectively or asserting bold vote targets.
He argued that voters and occasion members are influenced by private pursuits, political loyalties, feelings and expectations, which may form their choices on the polls.
Omipidan additionally drew on the Rational Choice Theory related to economist and thinker Adam Smith to clarify how private pursuits may affect voting choices.
He mentioned his earlier work making use of the idea to electoral behaviour confirmed that voters’ choices have been influenced not solely by candidates’ identities or occasion affiliations but in addition by their evaluation of private pursuits and potential advantages.
According to him, voters typically take into account accessible options earlier than deciding which candidate or political platform they imagine will finest serve their pursuits.
He argued that the idea provided a helpful framework for understanding why political preparations that appeared advantageous to occasion leaders may not routinely translate into widespread help amongst occasion members or voters.
He, subsequently, referred to as for better engagement with stakeholders in Osun State to handle considerations surrounding the rising marketing campaign association earlier than they developed into deeper divisions.
According to him, the APC must strengthen its buildings in the state, deal with the considerations of aggrieved members and be certain that its marketing campaign preparations encourage reasonably than discourage grassroots participation.
