The Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE) has warned that rising energy costs could reverse Nigeria’s latest disinflation gains, regardless of headline inflation easing to 14.63% in September 2026.
The coverage suppose tank stated the sharp acceleration in month-to-month energy inflation poses a risk to the broader decline in shopper costs, calling for measures to strengthen home energy resilience and scale back manufacturing and distribution costs.
The warning was contained in a CPPE’s coverage temporary on Nigeria’s September 2026 inflation report launched by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).
According to the organisation, month-to-month energy inflation accelerated to five.38% in September from 0.36% in August, a rise of 5.02 proportion factors, whereas year-on-year energy inflation stood at 10.85%.
Energy costs threaten inflation outlook
The CPPE described the acceleration in month-to-month energy inflation as probably the most important warning alerts within the September inflation report, noting that energy is a crucial enter throughout nearly each sector of the economic system.
Higher petrol, diesel and gasoline costs enhance transportation, distribution and manufacturing costs, with potential knock-on results on meals costs and core inflation.
The organisation linked the strain to geopolitical tensions within the Middle East, which have heightened volatility in international petroleum markets and uncovered Nigeria to exterior energy-price shocks.
While change price stability may help reasonable imported inflation, the CPPE stated it can not totally offset rising worldwide energy costs.
It warned that sustained will increase in energy costs could undermine the latest disinflationary pattern, arguing that lasting value stability would require lowering the economic system’s structural dependence on costly and unstable energy sources.
- “The policy priority should therefore be to strengthen domestic energy resilience through reliable electricity supply, expansion of CNG infrastructure, greater adoption of electric mobility and improved domestic refining efficiency,” the temporary stated.
Headline inflation falls to 14.63%
The CPPE welcomed the decline in headline inflation to 14.63% in September from 15.39% in August, representing a lower of 0.76 proportion factors, or 76 foundation factors.
It stated the moderation reinforces the disinflationary pattern, helps macroeconomic stability and improves prospects for funding, financial easing and financial restoration.
- Core inflation additionally eased to 12.95% from 13.29%, whereas month-to-month headline inflation declined to 0.06% from 0.71%.
- Monthly meals inflation turned adverse at 1.55%, providing some instant aid to customers, in keeping with the organisation.
- The CPPE attributed a part of the advance to relative stability within the overseas change market, which has helped reasonable imported inflation and enhance enterprise planning.
However, it cautioned that falling inflation doesn’t essentially imply that the general value of doing enterprise is declining, significantly when energy and logistics costs stay elevated.
CPPE backs additional rate of interest cuts
The organisation stated moderating inflation strengthens the case for additional financial easing, given the excessive value of credit score dealing with companies throughout the economic system.
It famous that elevated borrowing costs have constrained manufacturing, agriculture, building, distributive commerce and micro, small and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs).
It urged policymakers to keep up a measured method, balancing the necessity to scale back borrowing costs towards inflation expectations, change price situations and rising energy-price dangers.
The organisation additionally flagged the rise in month-to-month core inflation to 1.11% in September from adverse 0.06% in August, regardless of the decline in annual core inflation.
It stated the divergence means that underlying value pressures haven’t been totally contained.
CPPE outlines coverage priorities
To maintain the disinflationary pattern and restrict the chance posed by energy costs, the CPPE advisable a number of measures for policymakers.
These embrace sustaining prudent financial easing whereas safeguarding overseas change stability and inflation expectations, and prioritising meals affordability by addressing insecurity, agricultural productiveness constraints, post-harvest losses and distribution costs.
It additionally known as for accelerated electricity-sector reforms, expanded compressed pure gasoline and different energy infrastructure, and extra aggressive home petroleum markets to scale back energy costs.
Energy inflation in 2026
The 12 months started with energy inflation at 11.17% in January earlier than accelerating to 12.90% in February, its highest degree within the first 9 months of 2026.
- The price subsequently moderated to 9.90% in March and declined additional to 4.60% in April, earlier than recovering barely to five.73% in May.
- Energy inflation climbed once more to 9.90% in June however fell to 4.40% in July, its lowest studying through the interval.
August recorded a marginal enhance to 4.69%, earlier than the speed greater than doubled to 10.85% in September, marking the sharpest month-to-month acceleration within the annual inflation price to this point this 12 months.
