Nigeria’s monetary system is projected to obtain roughly N13.79 trillion in liquidity inflows in November 2026, pushed largely by Open Market Operations (OMO) maturities and authorities disbursements.
According to the Financial Markets Dealers Association’s (FMDA) October 2026 market report, the projection represents a 2.16% improve from the N13.50 trillion recorded in October. The Association had projected N13.25 trillion liquidity inflows for October, 2026.
The November liquidity outlook follows a moderation in the Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) liquidity mop-up operations, which coincided with a 56.75% improve in banking-system liquidity to N7.373 trillion in October from N4.703 trillion in September.
OMO maturities drive November inflows:
The FMDA projects whole liquidity inflows of N13.787 trillion in November, in contrast with N13.495 trillion in October, representing a rise of roughly N292 billion.
- OMO maturities are anticipated to account for the most important share of inflows, with N8.927 trillion scheduled for compensation, equal to roughly 64.75% of the full.
- Federation Account Allocation Committee (FAAC) allocations are projected at N2.50 trillion, representing 18.13% of anticipated inflows.
- Treasury Bills maturities are estimated at N1.919 trillion, contributing roughly 13.92%.
- Federal Government bond coupon funds are projected at N323.154 billion, whereas company bond coupons are estimated at N68.032 billion.
- Commercial paper maturities are anticipated to contribute N50.016 billion to whole inflows.
- Together, OMO maturities, FAAC allocations and Treasury Bills repayments are projected to account for about 96.8% of November’s liquidity inflows.
- Treasury Bills maturities are anticipated to report the most important month-to-month improve, rising by 46.49%, or roughly N609 billion, from N1.310 trillion in October.
- In distinction, OMO maturities are projected to say no by 1.37%, whereas Federal Government bond coupon funds are anticipated to fall by 49.08%.
- Corporate bond coupon funds are projected to extend by 213.28%, though their contribution to total inflows stays comparatively small.
The report additionally identifies a $105.94 million Eurobond coupon fee due in November, which is excluded from the naira liquidity projection.
CBN OMO mop-up slows:
The November projection follows a slowdown in the CBN’s liquidity absorption operations throughout October, when banking-system liquidity elevated by 56.75% to N7.373 trillion.
According to the FMDA, the CBN allotted N6.182 trillion in contemporary OMO securities in opposition to N9.051 trillion in maturities, leaving a web compensation distinction of roughly N2.87 trillion earlier than different liquidity actions.
- In September, the CBN offered roughly N17.51 trillion in OMO securities in opposition to N10.89 trillion in maturities, ensuing in a web liquidity withdrawal of about N6.62 trillion.
- The shift turned significantly evident in direction of the tip of October, when the CBN decreased allotments at its ultimate OMO public sale.
- Treasury Bills auctions additionally recorded substantial unfilled subscriptions, reflecting selective acceptance of investor bids.
- Nairametrics beforehand reported that FMDA knowledge confirmed banking-system liquidity rising by 69.39% to N6.283 trillion in the week ended October 16.
- The decreased tempo of liquidity absorption, alongside authorities allocations and maturing securities, helped maintain elevated banking-system balances.
- November’s projected inflows additionally exceed the N10.53 trillion forecast in the affiliation’s May report by roughly 31%.
For banks and fixed-income buyers, the anticipated inflows may maintain demand for short-term securities if contemporary OMO and Treasury Bills allotments stay under maturing obligations.
However, the affect on yields will depend upon the amount of latest securities issued and the charges buyers are prepared to simply accept.
November liquidity outlook faces dangers:
Despite the rise in banking-system liquidity, interbank funding charges remained comparatively steady throughout October, the report indicated.
- The Nigeria Overnight Financing Rate (NOFR) closed unchanged at 20.00%, whereas the in a single day fee declined by 5 foundation factors to twenty.38%.
- The Monetary Policy Rate remained at 23.00% following the CBN’s September 2026 resolution to scale back it by 350 foundation factors.
- The subsequent Monetary Policy Committee assembly is scheduled for November, making subsequent coverage selections related to liquidity circumstances.
- The FMDA expects comparatively comfy liquidity circumstances if the CBN maintains the selective public sale allotments recorded in direction of the tip of October.
- The affiliation additionally cautioned banks to keep up sufficient liquidity buffers due to the CBN’s continued reliance on OMO auctions to handle extra funds.
- Although the projected N13.79 trillion represents substantial potential inflows, it doesn’t mechanically translate into an equal improve in banking-system liquidity.
The eventual affect will depend upon contemporary securities issuance, authorities money actions and the extent to which maturing obligations are reinvested.
A return to aggressive OMO issuance may soak up a good portion of the anticipated inflows, whereas continued selective allotments may maintain extra liquidity and place additional downward strain on short-term yields.
