The nation is shifting within the path, reckons JOSHUA J. OMOJUWA
Structural transformation shouldn’t be a synonym for development, although the 2 are routinely confused by some folks. An financial system grows when it produces extra of what it already produces. It transforms when it begins to supply what it beforehand couldn’t. One speaks to amount while the opposite addresses functionality. Nigeria has spent three years producing quite a lot of the primary, and the sincere query is whether or not any of the second has adopted.
Growth has returned, and it’s coming from the a part of the financial system that employs Nigerians. The National Bureau of Statistics put enlargement at 4.43 per cent within the second quarter of this yr, the strongest quarterly print in 5 years. Non-oil development was 4.31 per cent, in a non-oil sector that’s roughly 96 per cent of output. Crude manufacturing recovered to 1.72 million barrels a day over the identical interval with out turning into the engine. A commodity financial system that grows on its non-commodity aspect has finished one thing extra fascinating than get fortunate with a value.
The forex has one value. The naira has traded in a band round N1,358 to N1,380, and the parallel market premium that outlined the earlier decade has successfully closed. That premium was not merely an change price inconvenience. It was a switch, from the general public purse to whoever held entry to the official window, and it rewarded proximity to allocation over manufacturing.
The state can now pay for itself. Federal income rose from N12.3 trillion in 2023 to N28.3 trillion in 2025, with N21.6 trillion collected within the first half of this yr alone. Tax to gross home product moved from 10.3 per cent to about 13 per cent. None of that got here from a brand new headline tax price. It got here from assortment, from the closed arbitrage, and from ending a subsidy that was paid earlier than anything was paid. Roughly 76 per cent of collections are actually non-oil.
And Nigeria principally refines at residence the gas it used to import. In the primary quarter of this yr, petrol imports fell to 965.52 million litres from an estimated 2.43 billion litres in the identical quarter of 2025, a decline of 60 per cent. Domestic refinery provide rose 59 per cent to three.18 billion litres, taking the refineries’ share of whole petrol provide from 45 per cent to almost 77 per cent. In worth phrases, refined petroleum imports fell 87.5 per cent, to 310 million {dollars} from 2.48 billion. Over that very same quarter, Nigeria exported 2.37 billion {dollars} of refined petroleum.
The identical product, shifting in reverse instructions, inside twelve months.
That is the one merchandise on the record which is structural within the technical sense. The others are value corrections, and a value correction is reversible by the identical stroke that made it. A refinery shouldn’t be. It is bodily capital, operating at capability, displacing an import invoice that had been Nigeria’s single largest declare on international change for many years. Everything else on the record describes an financial system that stopped doing one thing silly. This one describes an financial system that began with the ability to do one thing.
On the measure economists truly use for structural transformation, Nigeria has began to maneuver. The Harvard Growth Lab ranks nations by financial complexity, which is the range of what they make weighted by how few others could make it. Nigeria sits close to one hundred and fiftieth, within the lowest tenth of measured economies. In essence, lots room for development. Oil and oil merchandise have been about 88 per cent of exports in 2024, in a yr when the oil sector was about 5 per cent of actual output. Everything Nigeria sells overseas that isn’t crude got here to over 6 billion {dollars} in 2025. A document.
The present account tells the identical story in a unique context. The surplus is actual and it’s massive, 7.5 per cent of output in 2024 and greater than 12 billion {dollars} within the first half of this yr. But think about what produced it. Diaspora transfers have been 24 billion {dollars} in 2024 and 11.12 billion {dollars} within the first half of this yr. Strip them and the account is in deficit. The companies deficit, in the meantime, has not budged. Nigerians nonetheless purchase international schooling, international medical care, international freight and international insurance coverage at a price that three years of forex adjustment has not touched.
So the reply to the query within the headline isn’t any, not but. Not on the definition. But we’re getting into that path.
Transformation shouldn’t be one thing a fiscal instrument delivers. It is constructed inside companies, over a decade or extra, from amassed functionality. What coverage decides is whether or not constructing it’s rational. For many of the final twenty years it was not. When the forex had two costs, the very best return in Nigeria was arbitrage. When petrol was subsidised, the very best return was smuggling it. Capital went the place the returns have been, and the returns have been in extraction quite than manufacturing. Correcting these costs transforms nothing by itself. It merely stops punishing the individuals who would.
PwC’s survey within the second half of this yr finds family sentiment nonetheless properly behind the aggregates, which is the anticipated signature of an adjustment that reduce actual incomes earlier than it produced something to distribute. The International Monetary Fund places debt service at 53.7 per cent of federal income. More than half of what the federation earns is dedicated to the previous earlier than the current in type of funds allocations to our urgent wants. That is the binding constraint on how shortly the primary downside may be solved, and no reserve determine solutions it.
Which provides us the take a look at for the subsequent part, and it’s not a development price. It is whether or not the non-oil export quantity strikes. Over six billion {dollars} is the measure of what Nigeria can presently make that someone overseas desires to purchase. Watch that determine. When the Nigerian financial system attains full transformation, that quantity will inform many of the story. We can and should do much more on this entrance. Our prosperity depends upon it.
Omojuwa is chief strategist, Alpha Reach/BGX Publishing
