The Federal Government says Fitch Ratings’ choice to revise Nigeria’s credit rating outlook from Stable to Positive displays progress in financial reforms, overseas alternate market changes and efforts to strengthen the nation’s exterior place.
Fitch introduced the revision on 9 October, retaining Nigeria’s long-term foreign-currency issuer default rating at ‘B’.
In a press release issued on Saturday, the Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Taiwo Oyedele, stated Fitch cited elevated overseas alternate reserves, easing inflation and improved financial prospects among the many elements supporting the outlook revision.
According to the minister, Nigeria’s gross overseas alternate reserves rose to $54.9 billion as of 25 September 2026, from $32 billion in mid-April 2024.
He attributed the rise to extra formalised overseas alternate transactions, portfolio inflows, greater exports and remittances.
Fitch additionally projected that Nigeria would document a present account surplus equal to six.4 per cent of gross home product in 2026.
Economic development and inflation
The scores company projected that Nigeria’s actual gross home product would develop by 4.3 per cent in 2026, in contrast with 4 per cent in 2025, with development remaining above 4 per cent in 2027 and 2028.
Fitch expects non-oil actions to stay the primary driver of financial growth.
The projection comes as Nigeria’s economic system recorded development of 4.43 per cent year-on-year within the second quarter of 2026, in line with the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).
The determine was greater than the three.89 per cent recorded within the first quarter of 2026 and the 4.23 per cent recorded within the corresponding quarter of 2025.
The World Bank’s October 2026 Nigeria Development Update projected common annual financial development of 4.4 per cent between 2026 and 2028, figuring out companies and agriculture among the many contributors to financial exercise.
On inflation, Fitch projected a median price of 15.4 per cent in 2026, lower than half the extent recorded in 2024.
The NBS reported that Nigeria’s headline inflation price eased marginally to fifteen.39 per cent in August 2026, from 15.43 per cent in July.
The figures present latest context for Fitch’s evaluation of inflation, though the company’s annual common forecast is completely different from the month-to-month inflation price reported by the NBS.
Reserves, oil manufacturing and public debt
Fitch additionally famous developments in Nigeria’s oil sector, together with crude oil manufacturing assembly the nation’s OPEC goal of 1.5 million barrels per day from May 2026.
Mr Oyedele stated elevated home refining was serving to to cut back gas imports and overseas alternate demand.
On public funds, Fitch expects Nigeria’s tax reforms to extend non-oil income relative to the scale of the economic system.
The company projected that normal authorities debt would common 32 per cent of GDP between 2026 and 2028, beneath the median of 56 per cent for international locations with a ‘B’ rating.
Fitch additionally highlighted Nigeria’s home debt market and the banking sector recapitalisation train, noting that many banks had capital adequacy ratios above 20 per cent.
However, the company recognized persistent challenges, together with inflation remaining above ranges in peer international locations, authorities income being low relative to the scale of the economic system, and curiosity funds accounting for a excessive proportion of presidency income.
The minister stated the federal authorities would proceed implementing reforms aimed toward rising income, enhancing spending effectivity, strengthening debt administration and supporting non-oil financial development.
Other rating developments
The Fitch choice follows different developments in Nigeria’s worldwide credit assessments.
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In May 2026, S&P Global Ratings upgraded Nigeria’s credit rating from ‘B-’ to ‘B’. In August, Moody’s revised its outlook on Nigeria to Positive whereas retaining its ‘B3’ rating.
Mr Oyedele famous that the federal government’s medium-term goal remained to enhance Nigeria’s credit standing and work in the direction of investment-grade standing.
He stated the administration would proceed to focus on overseas alternate market reforms, tax income mobilisation, fiscal governance, extra environment friendly public spending and development in non-oil sectors.
The minister stated its broader goal was to “translate economic reforms into jobs, food security, support for small businesses and improved living standards”.
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